Our latest survey on confidence in the UK economy gathered responses between 28 September 2018 and 21 January 2019 from those working in securities, investment, wealth management and financial planning.
Respondents were asked how they felt about the UK’s economic prospects compared with six months ago. The CISI has conducted the poll on average every six to 12 months since spring 2012.
Of the 1,062 responses, 55% were less optimistic about the UK’s economic prospects (compared to 35% in end 2017/early 2018). And 21% felt more optimistic, with 24% unchanged (as opposed to 30% optimistic and 35% unchanged end 2017/early 2018).
The CISI confidence indicator (the sum of positives less the sum of negatives) is -34, which is an all-time low since the survey first started six years ago.
Of the 109 individual comments made by respondents, the word 'Brexit' appeared 67 times.
CISI CEO Simon Culhane, Chartered FCSI said: “Our survey results match those of the latest Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) member survey, which shows confidence in the UK’s economy is at its lowest level since the ACCA report first launched in 2009.
“In addition, the CBI’s latest survey showing confidence of UK manufacturers’ outlook has dropped to -23, the lowest level since the Brexit referendum. Businesses abhor uncertainty, they can’t plan, they can’t invest and they can’t recruit and now, with less than two months before the UK plans to leave, we have complete uncertainty, so this survey result is no surprise.”
Some comments
- “Brexit will completely overshadow any minor gains made elsewhere. It’s going to be a disaster.”
- “Total uncertainty. Total anxiety. Complete disharmony and division.”
- “Ongoing political uncertainties delay decision-making which in turn affects employment and future economic growth.”
- As the decision about our position in the EU continues, things are not going to be settled. Leaving the EU is a huge mistake, as globalisation continues, trading in blocs creates better negotiating clout.”
- “Really worried about Brexit and its effect on the economy, the market and job security.”
- “Brexit is best described as an en-masse self-harm process for the UK.”
- “I feel politicians are putting their own power grabbing egos ahead of the nation’s best interest in securing an acceptable outcome for Brexit.”
- “The UK is an island and whatever the economic circumstances we confront, we will create an entrepreneurial economy and be flexible in our approach – business partners like that.”
- “Whatever form Brexit takes it will unleash new energy and I hope that the negative tone of the Bank of England and The Treasury will cease and that the huge entrepreneurial spirit of the UK will bear fruit.”
- “I would suggest looking into higher taxes on high earners' £1m+ salaries. Revoking the triple lock – it’s unbelievable that the demographic that benefited from free university education and DB schemes, (effectively guaranteed to a certain extent by the government) are the only demographic guaranteed to get richer every year. This in combination with stagnant wages, inflation and mental health issues guarantee that young people will have no social mobility.”
- “Brexit has been a brutal curse to our sector and nation. It has taken on mythical status such that even intelligent, rational people can hold extreme and fantastical viewpoints that have no basis in reality. Worse, it makes discussing planning extremely difficult. Even if article 50 is withdrawn, much of the damage has now been done and instead of having two and a half years to prepare for the inevitable slowdown, our nation has barely stayed expansionary.”
- “We have a parliament full of donkeys. No one has a clue as to what is happening. It is a national scandal and disgrace which will affect us for many years to come. There has been no real or effective planning for any of this. The whole situation is outrageous.”